The uncertainty around TikTok’s future in the US continues with this weekend’s 19 Jan deadline for China-based ByteDance to sell the app now very close indeed.
With ByteDance still resolute that it will not sell TikTok, the app will, in theory, be banned from Sunday. However there are conflicting accounts of whether Joe Biden, Donald Trump, the Supreme Court or Congress might stage a last minute intervention to - at least - give TikTok a little more time.
If that doesn’t happen and the ban goes into effect, TikTok says that not only will its app disappear from Apple and Google’s app stores, but it will effectively stop operating in the US entirely, because the American businesses that provide services to the social media platform won’t legally be allowed to continue to do so.
However, there is one potential get-out for TikTok, which is that the sell-or-be-banned law passed by Congress last year - based on concerns that the Chinese government has access to TikTok user data via ByteDance - allows the US President to delay the ban by 90 days.
There has been speculation that Biden might instigate that delay this week, allowing his successor Trump - who takes over on Monday - to try to negotiate a deal that could save TikTok while addressing the data security concerns, something self proclaimed “consummate dealmaker” Trump insists he - and only he - can achieve.
Others have speculated that Trump might look to delay the ban himself with an executive order on his first day in the Presidency, which means the ban could be halted within 24 hours of going into effect.
Sources close to Biden deny he will get himself involved, not least because the 90 day delay is only meant to be used if negotiations to sell the app are underway and more time is needed to complete a transaction. It’s also unclear on what legal grounds Trump would postpone a ban which would already be in place when he takes office.
It’s also still possible that the Supreme Court could halt things with a ruling that the ban is unconstitutional. The backbone of TikTok’s argument to the Supreme Court justices to block the sell-or-be-banned law is that it’s unconstitutional on free speech grounds.
Following a hearing last week, it was thought the Supreme Court might make some kind of ruling on the ban yesterday, but that didn’t happen, and legal experts say that - the closer it gets to the ban’s deadline - the less likely it is that the Supreme Court will stop, or even just postpone, the ban.
Within Congress itself - which proposed and passed sell-or-be-banned law in the first place - there is potentially an avenue of support to at least pause the ban, with US Senator Ed Markey yesterday proposing a congressional bill, the Extend The TikTok Deadline Act. However, according to Reuters, Republican Senator Tom Cotton blocked that proposal.
And so, with a last minute stay looking unlikely - but not impossible - TikTok, its 170 million US users, and the millions of creators, including musicians, who utilise the platform, currently have no idea what will happen on Sunday.
There is a theory in some quarters that the whole thing is nothing more than an elaborate game of chicken, with US politicians and officials hoping that ByteDance will make a last minute announcement that it will sell TikTok just before the ban hits, allowing the White House to instigate the 90 day postponement.
That may, in fact, give enough time for a deal to be thrashed out that means TikTok is not, in fact, sold. Meanwhile,TikTok’s high-stakes gamble is the hope that those same politicians and officials will backtrack at the final moment.
The other possibility - which would spark off a whole new level of drama - is that it really will be game over for TikTok within the USA by the time Trump recites the presidential oath of office on Monday lunchtime.
With the clock ticking, it’s anyone’s guess how this will resolve itself, but whatever the outcome, it’s almost certain that Sunday’s deadline will be the beginning of a new installment of TikTok drama.