The future may be bright for digital music, but the future of digital music is not Orange. Nor T Mobile, Vodaphone, O2 or 3. Well, not if the panel at last night's MusicTank Think Tank event in London are anything to go by. Posed with the question as to what music technology might stop the seemingly unstoppable rise of the iPod, the consensus seemed to be that while the mobile phone was currently the hottest contender, it was unlikely to succeed.
Columnist Charles Arthur set out why. "Mobile phones face a number of problems if they want to compete in download space. Think about what questions customers are going to ask. Can I store my whole album collection on my mobile phone? No. Can I access my music in three clicks? No. Can I download tracks quickly and easily? No. Yes, the mobile companies do win on payment - people are used to buying ringtones on their mobile and having that charged to their phone bill - the same system can work for downloads. But on everything else they perform badly. And while the technology might catch up eventually, they are running out of time because Apple are also moving forward. A wireless iPod is increasingly likely. A video iPod too. I don't see the mobiles winning this one."
MusicAlly's Steve Mayall, while recognising the weaknesses of the mobile firms' music offerings, felt compelled to defend the phone companies' music ambitions, pointing out that the reach of the mobile industry is immense compared to any of the download music platforms. Not only that, but the major players in the mobile industry - France Telecom and Deutsch Telecom in particular - both own mobile networks and internet service providers which, together, would have customer reach vastly bigger than anything iTunes, Napster et al could ever dream of. Despite the limitations, the mobile networks, perhaps in partnership with their ISP sister companies, have an existing audience that gives them a real advantage in the digital music race.
But the University Of Sussex's Michael Bull remained cynical about the mobile sector's chances. "Different technologies suit different ideas. An iPod is an iPod. A phone is a phone. Consumers interact with them in different ways. Phones can play music, but it doesn't mean people will want to listen to music on them. And there is little I can see the mobile firms doing just now to change that."
Of course the mobile firms may yet prove the experts wrong because, as the whole panel agreed, the future of digital music has little to do with technology and everything to do with marketing. Barney Wagg of Universal's eLabs pointed out, "If there's one thing Apple showed us, it's that technology isn't the important thing here. Apple have succeeded because of style and consumer experience. Neither the iPod nor iTunes are particularly leading edge, in fact they have chosen to not use the latest DRM technology because doing so makes it less user friendly. The thing about iTunes is it works, it is easy to use and it is presented in a nice way. That's why it's been a hit".
All of which means that, despite the general damnation, perhaps there is a positive message for all the mobile firms out there in all this. Wagg continued: "The mobile music platforms I've seen remind me of the online download space in 1997. The technology is almost there, but the customer experience is rubbish. Don't forget, everything else is irrelevant." The message? Find yourself a Steve Jobs type figure who can look beyond the technology and come up with that big idea that will genuinely appeal to the cash rich music fan. Easy.