A new report from US based academic research group and consultancy Oxford Analytica predicts that the usage of P2P file sharing networks will increase despite attempts by the music industry to lure people away from the illegal content sources through a carrot and stick approach of suing serial file sharers while proactively supporting legitimate download platforms.
However music industry bosses are unlikely to be swayed by the new report because, while it presents new evidence that overall P2P usage is increasing month on month, the reasons why the company believes that trend will continue are nothing new. The report's authors point to the fact that litigation has its limits, especially when many P2P users sit outside the jurisdiction of friendly Western courts. They also question whether the legitimate download platforms, however compelling, can ever really compete with free music services.
Meanwhile the report says attempts to use technology to combat file sharing has been unsuccessful: "The central theoretical problem that must be cracked is to figure out a way to place a copy limitation on the act of sale of a copyrighted product. Several technical solutions have been proposed, but they are vulnerable to being disabled by a hacker or other skilled software uses." Both these points are true, but neither are news to the music industry.
The report doesn't touch on one new factor that might help reduce the amount of P2P usage. Some industry insiders have pointed out that growing consumer resentment to so called 'spyware' and 'adware' might help combat P2P usage because there is a consensus is that using P2P software makes your computer much more susceptible to spyware intrusions. This, coupled with the fact legitimate download platforms are more convenient, might just help the music industry turn the tide when it comes to P2P.