The great thing about the Mercury Music Prize shortlist is that there is always a couple of artists in there to which the vast majority of the music industry can only respond, "erm, who?".
Of course, none of these 'outsiders' has ever been the overall winner in the Prize's fourteen year history, but presumably jazz outfit Polar Bear and Devon based folk-rock singer songwriter Seth Lakeman won't be too depressed by their respective outsider ratings - merely being shortlisted will provide a considerable boost to their careers, in the short term at least. Let's hope so, especially for Lakeman who told the BBC yesterday: "I'm skint. I spent my last £177 on the entry fee for this award. I didn't think I stood a chance in hell".
The rest of the shortlist is a little more predictable. Well, I say that, we predicted four correctly (Kaiser Chiefs, Bloc Party, MIA, KT Tunstall), but none of the others come as a great surprise except, perhaps, the choice of Coldplay as the 'token mainstream nominee' (since when has this been the Nationwide Mediocre Music Prize?). As for who will be the overall winner on 6 Sep, well that is anyone's guess, because Mercury Music Prize judges have a tendency of surprising everyone at the last minute (though, not by picking the complete outsiders).
I'm going with MIA, but the bookies reckon Kaiser Chiefs are the favourites, with William Hill offering 4/1 odds on them winning. Bloc Party, KT Tunstall and Coldplay are equal second place, all with 6/1 odds on winning.
Commenting on their status as bookies' favourites, Kaiser Chiefs frontman Ricky Wilson told reporters yesterday: "Being the favourites is exciting, although it doesn't mean we're going to win it. But we want to win it. People say, 'oh, it's just great to be nominated, we don't mind whether or not we win'. They're lying to themselves. Everybody wants to win."
The full shortlist is as follows, press info from Mercury Music Prize press office on 020 8964 9964:
Antony and the Johnsons - I Am A Bird Now
Bloc Party - Silent Alarm
Coldplay - X&Y
The Go! Team - Thunder, Lightning, Strike
Hard-Fi - Stars of CCTV
KT Tunstall - Eye to the Telescope
Kaiser Chiefs - Employment
The Magic Numbers - The Magic Numbers
Maximo Park - A Certain Trigger
MIA - Arular
Polar Bear - Held on the Tips of Fingers
Seth Lakeman - Kitty Jay