How about some idle Monday morning speculation? Well, here goes.
Talk returned to the possibility of a Warner EMI merger in the financial press last week. The Financial Times reckons the "logic remains strong" for the two smaller majors to join forces in order to properly compete, in size at least, with their much bigger competitors SonyBMG and Universal Music. "Even after significant stand-alone cost cutting," the paper notes "there would be room for further efficiencies" should the two companies merge.
The FT reckon the investment types led by Edgar Bronfman Jnr, who still own 70% of Warner, may well proactively pursue an EMI merger or acquisition later this year. Although commenting on the same topic, the Times reckoned that EMI was more likely to lead any merger talks, especially if the Bronfman Jnr fraternity decided to opt for some quick wins by further reducing their stake in Warner.
Either way, the FT concedes there are still some factors going against the merger happening at all - the possibility of EU competition officials blocking further music business consolidation, the post-merger stresses over at SonyBMG and the continuing insecurity of the industry in general. Personally I still think a merger between one of the smaller majors and one of the big management firms or live promoters is actually more likely - or, at least, more sensible.