People "familiar" with that European Commission investigation into the proposed merger of Universal and BMG Music Publishing have told the Financial Times that the deal is likely to get approval before the end of the month.
European competition officials undertook an in-depth investigation into Universal's bid to acquire Bertelsmann's publishing company after opposition to further consolidation in the publishing sector was raised in various quarters of the wider music industry, opposition which led EC officials to say they had "serious doubts" about the proposals.
But since that time Universal has confirmed it is willing to sell off certain key catalogues belonging to both itself and BMG, including Zomba, 19 Music and Rondor, in order to reduce the merged enterprise's market dominance and make the merger more palatable to the regulators. Insiders say those gestures have worked, and that approval is now assured.
It will be interesting to see what effect any approval of a Universal/BMG publishing merger will have on the recorded music sector. EC competition officials are, of course, still reconsidering the SonyBMG merger which it originally approved, but which was overturned in the European Courts last year. Although the officials insist that the recorded music and publishing sectors are separate considerations, some reckon approval of a Universal/BMG publishing merger would set an environment where regulator approval of the SonyBMG merger and, should it ever arise, an EMI/Warner merger, is more likely.